a five-horse race

At mid-season, after 20 games, Arsenal stands third with 39 points (3 points less than last year). It’s two points behind United (19 games) and City (21 games). Spurs are fourth with 36 points (20 games) and Chelsea fifth with 35 points in 20 games. It’s going to be a five-horse race possibly till the end. So far it’s the most open race in many years with five teams tied in six points after 20 games. Even Chelsea cannot be written off.

After a good win against a poor Chelsea on December 27 – it was the first win over ManU or Chelsea, either home or away in any competition for almost three years! – Arsenal typically lost two points at Wigan stupidly, leading 2-1 comfortably with 10 minutes to play (it should have been 3-0 by then), and conceding an own goal by Squilacci and a draw. But there is great improvement since the United game, when they were poor (United were poor too but slightly better and won 1-0 with a Park goal). Chelsea game was the first in a long-long time where Fabregas, Walcott and van Persie were all playing. We saw against Chelsea what difference a fit Fabregas makes (he missed the away defeats at Chelsea and United earlier and it showed). Chelsea by contrast has had a horrendous series. In the last few weeks, it is at least feeling how it’s like to have three essential players injured or out of form (Drogba, Lampard, Terry).

Out of the ‘Big 8’ of last year, three are decidedly struggling this year: Aston Villa (#16, missing O’Neil), Everton (#13) and Liverpool (#9). They are no longer contenders for top four. Instead we now have a solid ‘big five’ with City and Tottenham both confirming their good season last year. At least City should be considered a title contender at this stage and Spurs are not too far off either.

The biggest satisfaction this year so far: indisputably Nasri. He has been simply amazing. Best PL scorer for the club with 9 goals (far behind Berbatov 14 and Tevez 12 admittedly). Wilshere and Song too. Chamack of course. Arshavin and Walcott have been stop and go. Fabianski has now become #1 goalkeeper. He has made some costly mistakes, fewer than in previous seasons, but most fans would still want to buy a great name instead of Almunia and Fabianski. The biggest problem has been defense as usual. With Vermaelen injured, no perfect central defense combination has been found so far.

Overall Arsenal is top scorer (42) but conceded way too many (22) compared with City (16) or United (18).

The great mystery is Manchester United, yet again. Without any significant re-enforcement last summer, and despite Rooney being out of form and threatening to leave at some point in the autumn, the team is undefeated. They should have suffered the same woes as Chelsea (United looked as Rooney-dependant as Chelsea was Drogba-dependant) and indeed the season start was slow compared to Chelsea brilliance till October, but then United resilience has been as impressive as ever. They won again against Arsenal despite a poor display and again today, they won an undeserved 2-1 against WBA. United has difficult fixtures ahead but has the dreadful habit of finishing strongly. If Rooney is to come back to full form and Berbatov to maintain his current form, their lead will be difficult to cut.

Arsenal has the easiest fixtures for the remainder of the season: playing United, Liverpool, Everton, Villa and City at home (the only tricky away game being Spurs) whilst United and City will both play at Chelsea and Arsenal. The Arsenal-ManU game at the end of April might be a decisive one.

In the meantime Arsenal must win the Carling Cup. With an upcoming semi against Ipswich, and the winner to play either West Ham or Birmingham, a first trophy in six years must come to break the inferiority complex and persuade the team they can win the League too. Very little can be expected in the Champion’s League as Arsenal drew mighty Barcelona and its world champions yet again in the last 16.